Pipeline Design
Part of CRM reporting
Comparing pipeline value with expected revenue
Compare full pipeline value, weighted deal value and a period forecast using the same deals, dates and currency.
Pipeline value is the full recorded amount of deals in a defined open-deal population. “Expected revenue” needs its own definition: on a CRM screen it may mean weighted deal value or a period forecast; an accounting report may mean something else. Identify the measure before comparing two numbers.
Put the figures on the same footing
Start with the deal population. Check the pipeline, owners, period, date field and currency in each view, and list intentional exclusions. A total for every open deal is not directly comparable with a forecast limited to deals expected to close this quarter.
Then check the amount basis. Full pipeline value sums recorded deal amounts. Weighted value applies an assigned probability to each amount.
HubSpot’s forecast tool can display total or weighted deal amounts. Pipedrive also displays full and weighted values; when a deal-specific probability is set, it takes precedence over the stage probability in the weighted calculation. Check the setting and view in the account being used.
| Figure | Calculation for two hypothetical open deals | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Full pipeline value | A$80,000 + A$40,000 = A$120,000 | Recorded value if both deals are won at those amounts |
| Weighted value | A$80,000 × 25% + A$40,000 × 75% = A$50,000 | Calculated value using the example probabilities |
The amounts and probabilities are illustrative. A$50,000 is neither a tested prediction nor an amount earned. If the probabilities are stale or inconsistently assigned, the total may look more precise than the inputs justify.
Explain the difference
The gap between full and weighted value follows from the probability rule. A gap between either value and a person’s forecast may reflect a judgement about timing, risk or eligible work. HubSpot’s forecast tool separately displays weighted or total deal amounts and a forecast submission for a selected period. Those labels describe distinct figures within that tool, which has subscription, seat and permission conditions.
Look for population differences before interpreting a gap: a changed amount, a deal moved outside the date range, a missing close date, a won deal included in only one view, or a currency conversion.
Pipedrive’s forecast view uses an expected close date for an open deal by default and the won date for a won deal; it can also use a selected custom date field. Pipedrive documents that view for Professional and higher plans. Its behaviour is not a universal forecast rule.
How to Align Pipeline and Expected Revenue Data
- Check currency and date fieldsUse A$ and consistent close date fields (e.g., expected close date or custom field)
- Verify probability rules and settingsConfirm whether stage-level or deal-specific probabilities are used in weighted calculations
- Identify exclusions and anomaliesCheck for won deals, missing close dates, or excluded deals in one view but not the other
Choose the figure for the decision
Use full pipeline value to describe the size of eligible open work. Use weighted value when the team has agreed what its probabilities mean and wants a calculated view. Use a defined sales forecast for the team’s estimate of what will close in a period, with its judgement and exclusions visible.
None of these figures establishes revenue recognised or cash received. When presenting two together, state the population, period, date field, currency, amount basis and probability rule. If the difference remains unexplained, trace deal IDs through both views before revising an estimate.
CRM Forecasting Metrics in Australia
- Full Pipeline Value
- Total recorded deal value for open deals
- Expected Revenue (Forecast)
- Team’s judgement-based estimate for closing period
